Trump Picked A Fight With An Ally Over Iran

And It Might Actually Be Paying Off

Trump's punitive measures against ally South Korea for Iran decision criticized as poor ally management.
Strait of Hormuz data suggests Trump's Iran strategy is quietly gaining traction, despite initial doubts.
Achieving behavior change in Iran, not regime change, may be a more realistic and achievable goal.

Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol Sentenced to Life in Prison for Insurrection — Source: NurPhoto / Getty

Trump Picked A Fight With An Ally Over Iran — And It Might Actually Be Paying Off

Tony Katz isn’t ready to hand President Trump a trophy, but he’s not ready to hand him a defeat either — and that tension is the story. “Except he might be onto something,” Katz said, even after cataloguing the kind of Trump rhetoric that “leaves his supporters just fit to be tied.” That’s the needle Katz threaded on “Tony Katz Today” while pressing National Review’s Noah Rothman on two fronts: a punitive squeeze on South Korea and a Strait of Hormuz strategy that’s quietly showing signs of life.

Start with South Korea. The Trump administration has scaled back joint war games with Seoul — after previously yanking THAAD missile interceptors mid-crisis — apparently as payback for South Korea declining to help pressure Iran. Translation: an ally gets punished for a decision that had nothing to do with its own defense needs. Rothman didn’t pull punches, calling it part of a pattern in which “this administration really doesn’t seem to care or even understand that politics happens in other countries too.” Katz’s read was blunter still, comparing MAGA’s tolerance for the maneuver to supporters who “never understood that Canadians could be pretty upset” about fifty-first-state talk. Insulting an ally and then acting shocked they’re insulted isn’t strategy — it’s a habit.

Then there’s Iran, where the picture is murkier and, per Rothman, more encouraging than the coverage suggests. Citing CNN reporting, Rothman noted that roughly 80% of vessels now transiting the Strait of Hormuz are using the U.S.-authorized channel rather than Iran’s — a sharp reversal from a month ago, when that lane saw almost no traffic. Energy Secretary Chris Wright puts flow at roughly 15 million barrels a day, nearing the pre-war average near 20 million. Not verified by CNN, Rothman cautioned, but directionally real.

Katz pushed on what “victory” even means here, given Trump has signaled he’d accept behavior change over regime change. Rothman’s answer: the Iranian threat never fully ends while the Islamic Republic exists, but degrading its capacity to project power — and taking the nuclear card off the table — is a real, achievable win, even if the rhetoric oversold it from day one. “It is within an ace of coming to something that approaches a victory,” Rothman said, with the caveat that Iran “gets a vote” and could still escalate toward Kuwait or beyond.

Bottom line: an irritating ally-management style paired with an Iran strategy that stumbled into something that’s working. Katz’s verdict stands — infuriating, but maybe onto something.

Hear Tony Katz break it down live weekdays on Tony Katz Today on WIBC 93.1 FM, or catch the full segment on-demand.

Listen to the “Trump Picked A Fight With An Ally Over Iran” discussion in full here:

Listen to the Show in Full here:

Watch the show here: