The Attack And Ceasefire Rollercoaster
- Proportional response is 'nonsensical'; the objective should be to 'win' and end the Iranian regime.
- US control of Iranian oil is part of a 'siege' strategy to cripple Iran's economy, but may not be enough.
- The IRGC is the dominant force in Iran, but not a viable negotiating partner due to their 'true believer' mentality.
The Attack And Ceasefire Rollercoaster
The United States’ recent military actions against Iran have sparked a heated debate about the effectiveness of the approach and the potential consequences. Tony Katz delves into the complexities of the situation, featuring a conversation with Major Mike Lyons, a retired US Army military analyst.
The discussion centers around the concept of “proportional response,” which has been touted as a key objective in the US’s dealings with Iran. However, Major Lyons argues that this idea is “nonsensical” and that the objective should be to “win” and end the regime. He notes, “If proportional response was the objective, have we crossed the line from proportional response into not so proportional?”
The conversation also touches on the recent announcement of the US taking control of Iranian oil, with Major Lyons suggesting that this move is part of a “siege” strategy aimed at crippling Iran’s economy. He believes that the US is applying “pressure that is reversible,” but argues that this approach may not be enough to bring the Iranian regime to the negotiating table. “We want to leave something that gives them the opportunity to rebuild themselves, something we can even help fix,” he says.
One of the key points of discussion is the role of the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in Iran’s government. Major Lyons notes that the IRGC is the dominant force in Iran, and that the US needs to find a way to negotiate with them. However, he believes that the IRGC is not a viable negotiating partner, as they are “true believers” who see the US as the “Great Satan.”
The conversation also touches on the potential role of other countries in the region, such as Turkey and India, in mediating the conflict. Major Lyons suggests that these countries could potentially be the “indispensable country” that helps to bring the Iranians to the negotiating table. He notes that India is already trying to insert itself diplomatically in the situation, and that they may be a key player in the coming days.
The episode also explores the changing nature of global alliances and the need for the US to rethink its relationships with its traditional allies, such as France and the UK. Major Lyons notes that these countries have taken on a “very different worldview” and that the US needs to adapt to this new reality. He suggests that the US should be looking to create new alliances and reevaluate its relationships with its existing partners.
As the situation in the Middle East continues to unfold, this episode of Tony Katz Today provides valuable insights into the complexities of the conflict and the potential paths forward. To hear more of the conversation with Major Mike Lyons, listen to the full episode and gain a deeper understanding of the issues at play.
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