Why Are We Extending A Ceasefire And With Who?
- IRGC's house arrest of Iranian negotiators suggests they lack control, undermining ceasefire's credibility.
- Iran's military capabilities have been severely degraded, despite claims of strength by Congressman Moulton.
- US adopting 'Israeli model' of disproportionate retaliation, signaling a more aggressive approach to future conflicts.
Why Are We Extending A Ceasefire And With Who?
In this episode of Tony Katz Today, we’re diving into the complex world of international relations and the ongoing conflict with Iran. Joining Tony is Major Mike Lyons, a retired United States Army military analyst, who shares his expertise on the current situation and the implications of the US’s approach.
The conversation begins with a discussion on the recent reports of the Iranian president, Pezeshkian, and the foreign minister being placed under house arrest by the IRGC. Major Lyons explains that this move is a sign of the IRGC’s desperation, as they’re trying to project power and show that they still have capabilities, despite being weakened by economic pressure. “They’re backed into a corner and they have nothing else to offer,” he says.
The topic of a potential deal with Iran is also on the table, but Major Lyons is skeptical. He believes that the IRGC is working autonomously, and that the negotiators being under house arrest suggests that they’re not in control. “If the negotiators are under house arrest at this point, you know, I have no problem with him delaying the ceasefire,” he says.
The conversation takes a turns to Congressman Seth Moulton. Moulton stated that Iran is in a better position today than it was before the war started. However, Major Lyons is quick to point out that Iran’s capabilities are severely limited. “The Iranians have no capability,” he emphasizes. “They’ve been taken down at scale on so many different levels.”
The discussion also touches on the role of NATO and the relationships between the US and its allies. Major Lyons notes that the internal politics of some countries, such as France and the UK, have dictated their decision not to get involved in the conflict. “We should take it less personally,” he advises. “NATO is still important, but there’s going to be difficult not to remember this going forward.”
One of the most striking points made by Major Lyons is the shift in the US’s approach to conflict. He explains that the administration has adopted the Israeli model of responding to attacks, where if you attack us, we’ll come back at you ten times stronger. “We’re not going to start it in a small manner,” he says. “If we’re going to start something, we’re going to start it at ten times.”
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