Obesity in America Skyrockets, Nearly Half Affected by 2035
Adult obesity in the United States has risen sharply over the past three decades, and researchers warn the trend is likely to continue into the next decade, according to a new study.
The research, published Tuesday, Jan. 28, in JAMA, found that 19.3% of U.S. adults were living with obesity in 1990. By 2022, that figure had climbed to 42.5%. The team projects it will reach 46.9% by 2035.
To reach their conclusions, researchers examined data from 11,315,421 participants across two cross-sectional, nationally representative U.S. surveys.
Registered dietitian Ashley Koff, who was not involved in the study, told USA TODAY the steady rise is not surprising given the many forces influencing public health.
However, she cautioned that the study’s reliance on body mass index, or BMI — a calculation based on height and weight — is flawed. Many health experts have criticized BMI as an outdated tool.
“These numbers actually don’t tell us about the health of individuals or anything about the mental health, the frustration or the dollar amount that people have invested in trying to optimize their overall health and doing so to lose weight,” she said.
The study authors acknowledged that limitation, writing that BMI does “not directly measure body fat or account for body composition,” and noting that such inaccuracies “may differ by demographic group.” They also pointed to other constraints, including limited data in certain areas and the use of self-reported health information.
When researchers broke down the data by age, sex, race and ethnicity, they found major disparities in obesity rates.
The steepest increases occurred among Hispanic females and males, while the smallest increases were seen among non-Hispanic Black males.
In 2022, non-Hispanic Black females recorded the highest obesity prevalence at 56.9%. Hispanic males, non-Hispanic White males and females, and non-Hispanic Black males had similar rates, ranging from 40.1% to 42.6%.
The findings also showed obesity rising among younger age groups over the past several decades, signaling an earlier onset of the condition.
Geography played a role as well. In 2022, obesity rates among white males and females were similar, with the lowest prevalence in the District of Columbia and the highest in West Virginia. Among Hispanic populations, the pattern differed: rates were generally highest in the Midwest and the South — specifically Oklahoma for females and Indiana for males.
The authors said these disparities likely stem from a mix of factors, including race-based discrimination, food insecurity and unequal access to healthy food and safe spaces for physical activity.
“Physical inactivity and or diet do not exist in isolation, often reflecting deep socioeconomic disparities and representing only some of the many causes of obesity that policy interventions can target to blunt its concerning trajectory,” the authors wrote.
Koff added that while conversations about nutrition have increased, meaningful support remains out of reach for many people.
“We need to have access to people that can help prevent this as we go along the path by personalizing plans and helping implement those plans, which is what qualified dietitians and coaches would be doing,” she said. “Currently that is not accessible via insurance or to most, even with a diagnosis of obesity and diabetes.”
