New Survey Puts AOC Ahead of JD Vance in 2028 Race

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez narrowly outperforms Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential contest, according to a new national poll.

The New York Democrat, often referred to as AOC, holds a 51 percent to 49 percent advantage over the expected Republican nominee in the latest The Argument/Verasight survey released Tuesday. Because the poll carries a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points, the result places the two candidates in a statistical tie. Respondents were asked who they would support if the election were held between Ocasio-Cortez and Vance.

When asked about the poll in a video shared on X, Ocasio-Cortez brushed off the significance of early surveys but added, “Let the record show, I would stomp him. I would stomp him.”

Newsweek contacted representatives for both Vance and Ocasio-Cortez by email seeking comment outside regular business hours.

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Neither Ocasio-Cortez nor Vance has officially declared a bid for the White House, but both are frequently mentioned as potential standard-bearers for their parties in 2028.

Ocasio-Cortez’s slim edge over Vance suggests the next presidential race could be closely contested, with no clear favorite. The findings also indicate that progressive Democrats could remain competitive on a national stage.

What To Know

The survey shows Vance leading among white voters, with 57 percent saying they would support him compared to 43 percent for Ocasio-Cortez.

Ocasio-Cortez, however, posted strong margins among Black voters, with 79 percent backing her, and Hispanic voters, where she received 64 percent support.

The poll also revealed a gender divide: 54 percent of men said they would vote for Vance, while 56 percent of women favored Ocasio-Cortez.

Among college-educated voters, Ocasio-Cortez held an advantage, earning support from 56 percent of respondents, compared with 44 percent for Vance.

Eight percent of voters who backed President Donald Trump in the 2024 election said they would now support Ocasio-Cortez, while Vance attracted five percent of voters who previously supported former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee that year.

The survey polled 1,521 registered voters between December 5 and 11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

Other hypothetical Democratic primary polling places Ocasio-Cortez behind more established figures, including former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, suggesting she is not currently the frontrunner within her party.

In another recent poll testing a three-way matchup among California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Vance and Ocasio-Cortez, Newsom led with 36 percent support, while Vance and Ocasio-Cortez were tied at 34 percent each.

What People Are Saying

Asked in October which Republicans could seek the presidency in 2028, President Donald Trump told reporters: “We have great people…We have JD, obviously, the vice president is great. I think [Secretary of State] Marco’s [Rubio] great. I think, I’m not sure if anybody would run against those. I think if they ever formed a group, it would be unstoppable. I really do. I believe that. I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever.”

The 22nd Amendment states that “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”

Earlier this month, Vance told Fox News host Sean Hannity: “I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections. But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it.”

David Axelrod, a senior adviser to former President Barack Obama during his first term, wrote on X: “@AOC has something you can’t teach.”