Severe Weather Threat Across Indiana Monday and Tuesday

STATEWIDE — Severe thunderstorms are possible across Indiana today and again tomorrow, with the main concern centered on damaging winds as a cold front moves through the state.

National Weather Service Indianapolis forecaster Mike Ryan says storms will weaken as they move east, but enough instability remains for scattered severe weather this afternoon and evening.

“Storms should begin to weaken as they move east and spread out into the evening,” Ryan said. “We’ll likely transition more to locally heavy rainfall and some flooding potential, but there are enough parameters that we do think there is a threat for scattered severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.”

Ryan said the strongest storms are expected along and ahead of the cold front, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

“That damaging wind threat is the much greater concern, and that’s what we’re focused on,” he said.

He added that storm coverage should be greatest across the northwest half of Indiana, with storms weakening as they reach eastern and southeastern parts of the state later in the day.

For Thursday, Ryan said leftover cloud cover from today’s storms could limit sunshine and daytime heating, which may reduce instability.

“That could limit some of the heating we would see from the sun, and by limiting that heating, that could limit some stability,” he said. “Certainly can’t rule it out, but it’s a very low threat at this point.”

He said temperatures will still reach the 80s both days before a cold front drops south into the Tennessee Valley midweek, bringing cooler and drier air back into Indiana for Wednesday and Thursday.

Looking ahead to the end of the week, Ryan said Friday—Indy 500 Carb Day—could turn wet again as another system moves in.

“Friday afternoon or Friday night might be rather wet as the front comes back north into the area,” he said.

For Sunday’s Indianapolis 500, Ryan said there is still some uncertainty, but the chance for showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as the region remains in an active weather pattern.