Latest Jobs Report Has Left Many Scratching Their Heads
- Economist doubts accuracy of March jobs report due to frequent revisions.
- Private sector grew while government sector shrunk, seen as positive sign.
- Inflation concerns rise as producer prices and tariffs impact consumer prices.
The Economy’s Mixed Signals: A Conversation with Dr. Matt Will
The latest jobs report has left many scratching their heads. With a surprise increase of 178,000 jobs in March, it’s hard to make sense of the numbers. Tony Katz dives into the details with Dr. Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis. He shares his insights on the report’s mixed signals and what they might mean for the economy.
Dr. Will isn’t buying the numbers, citing the massive revisions that often accompany these reports. “I don’t accept this number,” he says, pointing out that the revisions are often wrong from the get-go. He’s not alone in his skepticism, as the report’s inconsistencies have raised eyebrows. The ADP number, which is often seen as a more accurate predictor of job growth, was significantly lower than the official report.
One of the most striking aspects of the report is the contrast between the private and government sectors. While the private sector saw a significant increase of 143,000 jobs, the government sector actually shrunk by 8,000. Dr. Will sees this as a positive sign, saying, “Thank goodness, we got smaller government.” He also notes that the healthcare sector was a major driver of job growth, with an increase of 90,000 jobs.
However, Dr. Will is quick to point out that the report’s inconsistencies don’t add up. The ISM report, which is a more reliable indicator of manufacturing activity, showed a decrease in manufacturing employment. This contradicts the jobs report’s claim of a growing manufacturing sector. “It’s a stinct test,” Dr. Will says, “and this report doesn’t pass it.”
As we discuss the report’s mixed signals, Dr. Will also touches on the topic of inflation. With the producer price index up and tariffs being passed through to consumers, it’s clear that the economy is feeling the effects of the trade war. Dr. Will notes that the report’s inflation numbers are “significantly higher” than they’ve been in the entire Trump administration.
The conversation also turns to the topic of oil prices, which have seen a significant increase in recent weeks. Dr. Will explains that oil is a fungible asset, meaning that it’s interchangeable with other countries’ oil. He notes that the idea that the US can be independent from the global oil market is a misconception. “We are touched by others,” he says. “As much as Trump doesn’t like that, we can lead the world into a recession.”
Listen to the “Latest Jobs Report Has Left Many Scratching Their Heads” discussion in full here:
Listen to the show in full here:
Watch the show here:
Archived episodes here:
ABOUT THE SHOW
Tony Katz Today airs from 12-3pm ET on 93.1 WIBC/Indianapolis
What are we talking about? Politics, breaking news, political theory, art, the markets, food, libations and whatever else may come to mind.
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCAST
Tony Katz Today on Apple Podcasts
