New York Times: The Shy-Voter Polling Syndrome May Be Back
Ever since Donald Trump first entered the race for President in 2016, pollsters have generally undercounted Trump support. What’s going on here? Ed Morrissey from HotAir.com joined Tony Katz Today to talk about whether polls are undercounting Trump support again, or have they corrected their models?
Those who passionately support Donald Trump, are more likely to not answer a pollster.
His is a populist demographic that doesn’t trust pollsters, doesn’t trust the media and doesn’t want to sit on the telephone call for 15 minutes to engage people they don’t like. And so, they just hang up, you know, they just don’t, they refuse to complete the surveys. There’s not much that pollsters can do about that except to do their jobs better.
This alone easily skews the poll in the Democrats favor, as more Democrats aren’t as “shy” to publicly come out for their candidate.
This should make many Trump voters feel more at ease going into the election, as Kamala Harris’ “leads” are narrow in most polls. Considering how the polls undercounted Trump in 2016 and 2020, does Harris really have a lead in these battleground states?
Another factor going into election day that works in Trump’s favor, are how many Republicans are early voting. Democrats have been dominating this stat in previous cycles. Not true in 2024.
What will this all mean 2024? We will soon find out.
Listen to the discussion in full here:
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